All of Who2beton.com's Free Picks have been thoroughly researched by our team of professional handicappers and are accompanied with detailed analysis
Alex Smart
Baltimore Orioles (135)
Fri May 9 '08 8:10p I am expecting Steve Trachsel (1-4, 7.43 ERA) the 37 year old veteran starter for the Baltimore Orioles, to break out of an early season funk, against a struggling KC offense, that ranks last in the AL on the season, with 120 runs. The Orioles, have won 10 straight in this series overall,including 6 straight here in Kauffman and Im recommending backing them to turn the trick again, at a value price. Play on the Orioles
LT Profits
Arizona Diamondbacks (110)
Fri May 9 '08 2:20p It is not often that you can get Danny Haren at plus odds, so the Arizona Diamondbacks are virtually an automatic play when they visit the Chicago Cubs this afternoon.
Haren is enjoying his first season in Arizona, as he is 4-1 with a 3.12 ERA and a very impressive 0.99 WHIP in 43.1 innings of work. He has recorded six Quality Starts in seven outings, allowing two runs or less in four of those appearances. As if that were not enough to like Arizona as a dog in this spot, consider also that they qualify as a Bullpen System play, as they have the best bullpen ERA in the Major Leagues at 2.70.
Now Ted Lilly has reeled off three consecutive Quality Start for the Cubs after a poor start. However, he did not pitch well the last time he faced the Diamondbacks in the playoffs last year, when he allowed six runs and 11 baserunners while lasting just 3.1 innings, and he is facing a Snakes lineup that has hit southpaw well (.287) this year.
Arizona is 7-3 the last 10 times these clubs have met in Chicago, and we look for the D-Backs to make it 8-3 this afternoon.
MLB Free Pick: Diamondbacks +110
Baltimore Orioles (130)
Fri May 9 '08 8:10p Now we readily admit that the Kansas City Royals have the starting pitching advantage over the Baltimore Orioles tonight with Gil Meche facing Steve Trachsel, but the Orioles have the edge in enough other areas that we feel they are an overlay at this price.
The Orioles qualify as a play under our Bullpen System, which is 16-11, +5.11 units so far this season. Also, Baltimore has simply dominated the head-to-head series between these clubs, going an unbelievable 40-12 in the last 52 meetings. Even Trachsel has had success vs. Kansas City, allowing just two runs and eight hits in 16 innings over two starts last season, including a Complete Game five-hitter here in this stadium the last time he faced them.
Now Meche is supposed to be the Royals ace, and he did allow just four hits in seven scoreless innings vs. the Cleveland Indians in his last start. However, he has also had a couple of horrid outings this season that have inflated his ERA to 5.98 and his WHIP to 1.52. Furthermore, he is 0-3 with a whopping 9.00 ERA and 1.81 WHIP here in his own stadium.
We look for the Orioles to score some runs here as Meche’s home struggles continue, and for the Baltimore bullpen, which ranks eighth in the Major League with a 3.41 ERA, to hold the lead for the upset win.
MLB Free Pick: Orioles +130
Mike Rose
New York Dragons @ Los Angeles Avengers o111.5
Sat May 10 '08 10:30p Coming into Week 11’s AFL action, the NY Dragons sit four games in back of the National Conference’s Eastern Division leading Philadelphia Soul with a 5-4 SU mark, and they come into tonight’s contest winners of four in a row both SU and ATS. As for the Avengers, they sit one-game in back the San Jose Sabercats for the top spot in the Western Division of the American Conference. This will be just the sixth match-up between these two franchises as the Avengers have a stranglehold on the series winning four of the five match-ups both straight-up and against the spread. However, NY notched its first win of the series back in 2006 when they went into the Staples Center and upended the Avengers 70-61 as three-point road favorites. The 131 combined points soared over the closing ‘total’ of 112 to make the over 3-1 ATS in the L/4 overall meetings.
The Dragons have played some phenomenal defense to start the season that’s seen the under cash in six of their nine lined games this season. The under is a perfect 3-0 ATS when they’ve lined up against non-conference opposition, and it’s cashed all three times they played in a game with the total equal to or greater than 110. That said, LA is fighting for its playoff lives and the over has cashed in 4 of their 5 home games this season. It’s also 4-1 ATS when the total is equal to or greater than 110. Historically, this has been a high scoring series, so look for that to continue tonight regardless of how well NY’s defense has played throughout its L/5 games.
