“UFC 143: Diaz vs. Condit” predictions and odds

Dueling for the interim welterweight title in tonight’s UFC 143 main event, Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit will likely go down as one of the most intense, entertaining matchups of the year.

All thanks to Georges St-Pierre’s knee injury, these two top ranked 170-pounders will square off in a top contender elimination matchup, with the victor earning rights to a shot at St-Pierre and the legitimate welterweight belt sometime later this year.

Both fighters possess outstanding striking, conditioning, Brazilian jiu-jitsu and a similar tendency to push forward when hurt. However, neither fighter has a wrestling game anywhere near GSP’s—something that should result in the majority of this fight taking place standing up.

Diaz (26-7-1) boasts a lethal standup game that has caused problems for even the sport’s most accomplished strikers, often finding a rhythm that neutralizes and demoralizes his opponent throughout exchanges. The Cesar Gracie-trained fighter’s impressive submission game also makes him a serious threat on the ground, something that results in his opposition reluctant to attempt a takedown.

Condit (27-5), meanwhile, has steamrolled his way through four straight victories since dropping a close split-decision to Martin Kampmann in his UFC debut. The former WEC welterweight champion, known for his explosiveness and resilience, uses his 6’2” frame to impose his will inside the cage with a style and mentality not unlike Diaz’s. Utilizing powerful kickboxing combinations and textbook jiu-jitsu, Condit has finished nearly all his fights, going to the judges just three times in 32 fights.

What’s interesting about this matchup is that both fighters have granite chins, and although Condit’s jiu-jitsu hasn’t received the same praise as Diaz’s, both have incredible ground games. One area that differentiates the two is striking, which may prove to be the pivotal factor in this fight.

The Pick: Nick Diaz (-225) vs. Carlos Condit (+175)

Condit’s confidence will likely tempt him to stand and trade with Diaz, something that would eventually play into Diaz’s favor. Without threatening takedowns, something Condit has a slight advantage in with respect to completion and defense; he will find himself stuck in a standup war against a Diaz who isn’t worried about having to drop his hands.

If Diaz does have a weakness standing, however, it would be Muay Thai striking: although his accuracy and timing from mid-range and pocket distance is immaculate, he has shown himself to be relatively lazy in clinches and could be punished by a strong Muay Thai striker, which Condit is.

One of the only other options Condit has is to take away Diaz’s striking base by attacking his lead leg with kicks and landing knees from the clinch. If Condit can avoid sustaining any serious damage while managing to hinder Diaz’s mobility and striking, he will at least be able to level the playing field on the feet by however small a margin.

The outcome of this fight will largely be decided by how Condit chooses to engage Diaz: if he can avoid falling into Diaz’s game and effectively employ movement, leg kicks and inflict damage from the clinch, he may be able to outpoint Diaz. Additionally, if he can score a few mid-to-late round takedowns on Diaz while avoiding submission threats, his chances of earning a decision will improve dramatically.

Diaz, however, will likely prove too much for Condit as the fight progresses. He will eat some big shots from Condit early on, but nothing he hasn’t felt before. Ultimately, all Diaz has to do is play his game and wear Condit down while avoiding getting tied up — Diaz by decision.

Full UFC 143 Odds:

Stephen Thompson (-400) vs. Daniel Stittgen (+300)

Matt Brown (-325) vs. Chris Cope (+250)

Matt Riddle (-370) vs. Henry Martinez (+280)

Alex Caceres (-105) vs. Edwin Figueroa (-125)

Dustin Poirier (-500) vs. Max Holloway (+350)

Ed Herman (-300) vs. Clifford Starks (+230)

Renan Pegado (-240) vs. Scott Jorgensen (+190)

Josh Koscheck (-275) vs. Mike Pierce (+215)

Fabricio Werdum (-160) vs. Roy Nelson (+130)

Nick Diaz (-225) vs. Carlos Condit (+175)

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