Duke (18-3 SU/8-13 ATS) had a harder time than expected on Saturday in their 83-76 home win over St. John’s as -17½ point chalks. Mason Plumlee finished with 15 points and 17 rebounds as Duke held on down the stretch for the non-cover win. With the help of SportsOptions.com we analyize three Thursday night college matchups.
DUKE at VIRGINA TECH (+4.5, 141)
Ryan Kelly scored 16 points and grabbed nine boards for the Blue Devils, who controlled most of the game. Duke used a 20-3 run during the first half to take a comfortable 45-29 advantage heading into the break. They led by more than 20 and were still up by double digits with three minutes to play. St. John’s got the margin down to four late in the final minute, but a pair of free throws by Duke secured the win. Duke was seemingly running away with the game after Seth Curry hit a three-pointer early in the second half to give the Devils a 52-30 advantage and they led 60-40 with less than 14 minutes remaining, but the Red Storm scored 16 of the next 19 points to get back in the game and the eventual cover. The Blue Devils shot only 41.5 percent, but made 32-of-42 free throws. Andre Dawkins ended with 14 points; Austin Rivers had 12, while Curry finished with nine points in the win.
Virginia Tech (12-9 SU/6-10-1 ATS) continued to reel on Saturday in a 73-69 loss at Maryland as -2 point road favorites. Erick Green led the Hokies with 18 points, while Victor Davila and Dorenzo Hudson each finished with 14 points, and Jarell Eddie chipped in 11 points. Maryland shot 44 percent from the field to start the game and held VT to just 24 percent shooting. The Terrapins scored the first five points of the game and led for the entire first half, taking a 32-19 lead into the break. In the second half, both teams shot 50 percent from the field and each made four three-pointers. The Hokies were able to cut the deficit to just two, 71-69, with 5 seconds remaining, but Maryland drained two free-throws with three seconds on the clock to hand the Hokies the loss. Virginia Tech shot 24-of-61 overall (39 percent) and 6-of-16 from long range (37 percent). The Hokies also outscored the Terps 34-20 in the paint, but they were outrebounded 37-32. It was the sixth loss in seven games for the Hokies, who fell into a last-place tie with Georgia Tech.
Duke and VT split their two meetings last season. Va Tech won 64-60 as +4 point home underdogs, but Duke posted a 77-63 win as -7½ point favorites in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament. Duke is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games and 1-5 ATS following and ATS win, but the favorite is 4-1-1 ATS the last six meetings between these two ACC foes. As for the Hokies, they’re just 3-13-1 ATS against winning teams (above .600) and 1-7 ATS in ACC action as of late, as well as a subpar 15-17 ATS as a host.
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DETROIT at VALPARAISO (-3, 144)
Detroit (12-11 SU/7-12-1 ATS) comes off a 70-66 home win over Illinois-Chicago on Friday as -16 point chalks. Ray McCallum scored a season-high 26 points as the Detroit Titans downed the in a Horizon League tilt. McCallum went 9-of-11 from the floor for Detroit, while adding six rebounds, four assists, two steals and a block. Eli Holman added 16 points and eight boards off the bench and Jason Calliste chipped in with 12 points for the Titans, who have won three straight games for the first time this season. Detroit closed out the first half on a 35-15 run to take a 15-point advantage into halftime (37-22). The Titans shot 47 percent from the floor in the frame to the Flames’ 36 percent. Detroit was outscored 44-33 over the final 20 minutes but was able to hang on for the non-cover win. Detroit shot a dismal 1-of-17 from three-point range, while UIC knocked down 10-of-27 from three-point land.
Valparaiso (15-8 SU/10-10 ATS) is off a 55-52 win at Wisc-Milwaukee on Saturday as +5½ point road dogs. Ryan Broekhoff scored 11 points and pulled down a game-high eight rebounds, as the Crusaders posted a three-point win over Milwaukee in a crucial Horizon League showdown. The two teams entered the game tied with Cleveland State atop the conference standings. Kevin Van Wijk added 10 points in the win to help the Crusaders maintain share of the conference lead. Valpo trailed by as many as 12 with just under eight minutes remaining in the first half and went into the break down by seven (35-28) after connecting on just 34.5 percent of its field-goal attempts in the opening 20 minutes. However, Milwaukee went ice-cold in the second half, hitting just 6-of-26 from the floor (23 percent), including 1-of-10 shooting from long range. The Panthers had the last possession with a chance to force overtime, but they rimmed out three three-pointers in the final 13 seconds as Valpo prevailed. The Crusaders managed to win despite a 35 percent showing from the field.
Valparaiso and Detroit met in the Motor City on January 6th, with the Crusaders coming away with a 73-71 road win as +5 point dogs. Detroit has been a miserable traveler as of late, going 4-12-2 ATS and the Titans are also 1-8-1 ATS against winning teams (above .600). Valparaiso is only 3-7 ATS off an ATS win, and while they are 4-0 the last four meetings with Detroit; the road team is 4-1 ATS the last five meetings.
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UCLA at WASHINGTON (-3.5, 141)
UCLA (12-9 SU/11-10 ATS) comes off a decisive 77-60 home win over Colorado on Saturday as -8 point favs. Lazeric Jones scored 17 points and handed out nine assists as the Bruins stampeded the Buffaloes in Pac-12 Conference action. Travis Wear added 14 points and seven boards, while Tyler Lamb finished with 13 points and seven boards as well. David Wear made a solid contribution with 11 points on 5-of-6 shooting from the field. The Bruins took a 40-36 advantage into the break after they shot 57.7 percent from the field and knocked down 6-of-8 from three-point range in the opening 20 minutes of action. In the second half, UCLA shot an impressive 61.5 percent from the floor and 3-of-5 from long range to post the double-digit win. The Bruins had 26 assists to 12 turnovers, and outscored the Buffs 22-6 in the paint in the second half to run away with it.
Washington (14-7 SU/10-9 ATS) is coming off a 69-67 win at Arizona on Saturday as +4½ point underdogs. C.J. Wilcox hit two free-throws with five seconds left in regulation as the Huskies edged the Wildcats in a Pac-12 tilt. Tony Wroten scored 17 points for the Huskies to lead four players in double figures. Terrence Ross scored 16 points, Wilcox added 15 points and Aziz N’Diaye scored 12 points and pulled down eight rebounds for Washington, which has won six of its last seven. The Huskies trailed 32-29 at halftime, but came back in the second half to lead by as many as 11 with less than six minutes remaining in the game regulation before the ‘Zona came back to tie the game at 67 with eight seconds left. Arizona had a chance to tie after Wilcox’s free-throws but Josiah Turne’’s short jumper was deflected and came up short. Washington outscored Arizona 19-9 off the bench, connected on 28-of-63 from the floor (44 percent) and made 7-of-16 from long range (43 percent).
Washington won both meetings last year, 74-63 as -4 point road favorites and 70-63 as -8 point home chalks in the rematch. UCLA is on a 10-4 ATS run in Pac-12 games and 8-2 ATS in Thursday affairs. However, the Bruins are just 2-7 ATS when facing the Huskies, including 1-4 ATS when playing in Seattle. Washington is only 3-7 ATS off an ATS win, but they are 5-1 ATS at home lately.
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