NFL betting preview: Divisional Playoffs – Giants at Packers

Sunday’s National Football Conference Divisional playoff contest pits the NY Giants and Green Bay Packers; SportsOptions.com offers up the betting preview

NY GIANTS at GREEN BAY (-8, 54)

New York (10-7 SU/9-7-1 ATS) advanced in the playoffs with a convincing 24-2 home win over Atlanta as -3 point favorites. Eli Manning threw for 277 yards and three touchdowns to win a postseason game at home for the first time in his career. Manning hit eight different receivers and completed 23-of-32 passes and the Giants defense took care of the rest, stopping Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan on two key 4th-and-inches plays. Hakeem Nicks had two touchdown catches, including a leaping four-yarder in the second quarter that gave New York the lead for good, and Mario Manningham scored on a 27-yard catch in the fourth. Nicks caught six passes for 115 yards and Manningham grabbed four passes for 68 yards and the one score. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw split carries, running 14 times apiece for a combined 155 yards. Jacobs ran for 92 yards and Bradshaw finished with 63 yards in the win. The Giants returned to the playoffs after a two-year absence and captured their first postseason win since beating the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII, when they won four games away from home. 

Green Bay (15-1 SU/11-5 ATS) closed out the regular season two weeks ago with a 45-41 home win over Detroit as ridiculous +6½ point home underdogs. Aaron Rodgers was inactive for the game, as were several other Green Bay stars, but backup QB Matt Flynn filled in admirably with an impressive 480 passing yards and six touchdowns. It was an ideal situation for the Packers, who got to rest Rodgers and several other big-name players without losing momentum going into the playoffs. Flynn completed 31-of-44 passes with one interception and finished with a 136.4 QB rating. For Flynn, it was a huge day that could eventually lead to a significant payday. A seventh-round pick out of LSU in 2008, Flynn already had the attention of other teams around the league after he nearly beat New England last season while Rodgers was recovering from a concussion. Jordy Nelson had nine catches for 162 yards and three touchdowns for the Packers. Despite sitting out the game, Rodgers’ season quarterback rating of 122.5 coming into the game broke Peyton Manning’s single-season mark of 121.1 set in 2004. Green Bay has fielded one of the most prolific offenses in football during its record-setting season, leading the entire NFL in points scored (35 ppg) and ranking third in passing yards (307 ypg) and third in total yards (405 ypg), while Rodgers has passed for 4,643 yards with 45 TDs and just six picks.  These two teams met in NY on December 4th, with Green Bay coming away with a 38-35 win as -7 point favorites. Rodgers completed 28-of-46 passes for 369 yards with four TDs and a pick, while Manning connected on 23-of-40 passes for 347 yards with three TDs and one interception. Green Bay ended with a slight edge in total yards (449-447) and won the game on the final play as Mason Crosby kicked a 31 yard field goal as time expired. NY is 19-8 ATS on the road against teams with a winning home record and 6-0 ATS in road playoff games, but the Giants are only 4-12 ATS when playing on grass. Green Bay comes in 34-16-1 ATS overall and 18-7-1 ATS at home, as well as 11-4 ATS against NFC teams and 23-9-1 ATS when playing on a grass field. Additionally, the Packers are 8-1 ATS against winning teams and 5-1-1 ATS in divisional playoff games. As good as Green Bay is, they do come in tied with New England with the NFL’s worst defense, as they allow 411 ypg, but NY is no bargain either, ranking 27th with 376 ypg allowed. As mentioned, the Packers averaged 405 ypg on offense (#3), while NY ranked 8th in the NFL with 385 ypg. Lay it!

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