NFL betting preview: AFC Playoffs – Houston at Baltimore

Sunday’s American Football Conference Divisional playoff contest pits Houston and Baltimore; SportsOptions.com offers up the betting preview

HOUSTON at BALTIMORE (-8,37)
Houston (11-6 SU/11-5-1 ATS) advanced in the Wild Card round of the playoffs last week with a convincing 31-10 home win over Cincinnati as -4 point favorites. Arian Foster rushed for 153 yards and two touchdowns as Houston pulled away from Cincinnati for a win in the first postseason game in Texans franchise history. Houston’s vaunted defense had three interceptions and sacked Bengals QB Andy Dalton three times. Rookie quarterback T.J. Yates completed 11-of-20 passes for 159 yards with a TD and no interceptions for the Texans, who dropped their final three games of the regular season since clinching the AFC South with a 20-19 road win over the Bengals on December 11th. Houston ended with a 340-300 edge in offense and won the turnover battle 3-0. In a year marked by the unforeseen – from the losses of starting quarterback Matt Schaub and backup Matt Leinart, to nagging injuries for star wide receiver Andre Johnson – the Texans have put together the most successful season in the history of their franchise; and they also won 10 games for the first time in their ten years in the league. The Texans rank 2nd in rushing in the NFL (153 ypg) and they can play defense, which gives them a chance against any opponent. 

Baltimore (12-4 SU/8-7-1 ATS) had a first round bye after capturing the AFC North title with a 24-16 win at Cincinnati in the regular season finale two weeks ago. Ray Rice broke off touchdown runs of 70 and 51 yards to help the Ravens capture their first AFC North title since 2006 and earned the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. Joe Flacco threw for 130 yards on 15-of-19 passing, including a nine-yard touchdown to Dennis Pitta that gave Baltimore a 17-3 lead at halftime. Rice’s 70-yard touchdown on the game’s fourth play from scrimmage was the longest regular season run of his career. His 51-yarder in the fourth quarter came after a Cincinnati fumble and gave the Ravens a 24-13 lead with under six minutes to play. Rice joined Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk as the only players with 1,000 yards rushing and 700 receiving in more than one season. The Ravens went undefeated in the division for the first time in franchise history with two of the six wins coming against heated rival Pittsburgh. They won six of their last seven games to reach the postseason for the fourth time under head coach John Harbaugh. In each of Harbaugh’s first three seasons at the helm, the Ravens earned Wild Card berths and had to play on the road. The Ravens also won the division in 2003 and 2006.  These two squads met on October 16th in Baltimore, with the Ravens prevailing 29-14 as -7 point favorites. Flacco threw for 305 yards and ran for a score and Cundiff kicked five field goals. Baltimore ended with a 402-293 edge in total yards and Houston played without wide receiver Andre Johnson and linebacker Mario Williams. Baltimore is 12-5 ATS off a bye week and 4-1 ATS as a favorite in playoff games, but the Ravens are 1-5 ATS as a home fav between -7½ and -10 points. Houston is on an 8-2-1 ATS run overall and 8-4 ATS when playing with revenge; and the road team is 4-1 ATS the last five meetings. Houston has the NFL’s #2 defense (285 ypg), while Baltimore is 3rd in total defense with 288 ypg allowed. The Texans hold an edge on offense though with 372 ypg (#13), compared to the Ravens’ 338 ypg (#15).

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