The Baltimore Ravens have the nearly impossible task of beating Tom Brady and the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Tom Brady is back practicing, and everyone associated with the New England Patriots is acting like he never missed a snap. SportsOptions.com offers up a betting preview on Sunday’s AFC contest.
BALTIMORE at NEW ENGLAND (-7, 50)
Baltimore (13-4 SU/8-8-1 ATS) advanced to the AFC Championship game with a 20-13 home win over Houston as -7½ point favorites. Joe Flacco threw two first-quarter touchdown passes for Baltimore, which posted just their second postseason home win in franchise history. The AFC North champs only previous playoff victory at home was a 21-3 wild-card win over Denver on December 31, 2000, the first step on the way to winning Super Bowl XXXV. Baltimore was outplayed by the Texans, ending with deficits in total offense (315-227), FDs (16-11) and rushing yards (137-87), but they won the most important category with a 4-0 edge in turnovers which they cashed in for 17 points. Since 2000, nine teams have won playoff games gaining fewer than 250 yards of offense, and the Ravens have done it five of those nine times. The Ravens finished 9-0 at home, but it was anything but easy against Houston’s #2-ranked defense. Baltimore led 17-3 after the first quarter, but scored just three points the rest of the way. The Ravens’ #3-ranked defense, led by veteran defensive stars Ed Reed and Ray Lewis, gave up just one touchdown and came up with the big play when one was needed. Lewis had a team-high seven tackles and Reed sealed the victory with the Ravens’ fourth takeaway, an interception near the goal line in the waning moments, which was his eighth interception in 10 career-playoff games.
New England (14-3 SU/10-7 ATS) is in the AFC Championship game via a 45-10 home win over Denver as -13½ point favorites. Tom Brady shredded Denver’s defense in a record-tying performance, as the Patriots took the first step in getting back to the Super Bowl. Brady tied an NFL playoff record by throwing six touchdowns. Brady connected on 26-of-34 throws for 363 yards and was picked off once, equaling the TD mark held by Daryle Lamonica of the Oakland Raiders in a 1969 game against Houston and San Francisco’s Steve Young in the Super Bowl against San Diego following the 1994 season. Rob Gronkowski caught 10 passes for 145 yards and three scores for the Patriots, who got their first playoff win since beating San Diego in the AFC title game following the 2007 season. The Patriots, winners of nine straight games, are on the verge of their fifth Super Bowl appearance in 11 seasons. They’ve won three of those, two with Brady as the game’s MVP. The game marked Brady’s 18th consecutive postseason game with a TD pass, the second-longest streak all-time, behind Brett Favre (20). Brady (4,770) passed Dan Marino (4,510) for the fifth-most postseason passing yards in NFL history. Brady also has 36 playoff TD passes, which is third-most all-time, behind Joe Montana (45) and Favre (44). Patriots coach Bill Belichick got his 16th playoff win, tying Pittsburgh’s Chuck Noll for fourth-most all-time. Tom Landry (20), Don Shula (19) and Joe Gibbs (17) are ahead of Belichick. New England’s much maligned defense, which finished tied with Green Bay for worst in the NFL statistically, had 14 tackles for a loss, the most in a playoff game since the Steelers had 14 in the 2007 wild card loss at home to the Jaguars. New England ended with a 509-252 advantage in total yards and had a 31-15 edge in FDs.
The last time these two teams met was last season, with New England taking a 23-20 OT win as -3 point home favs. They also met in the playoffs the year before that and Baltimore embarrassed the Pats in a 33-14 win in Foxboro as +3½ point dogs. Baltimore is only 5-11-1 ATS in January games and 1-4-1 ATS when playing in New England. The Patriots, on the other hand, are on a 1-6 ATS skid in playoff games and 1-5 ATS in home playoff games, however, NE is 28-10 SU and 25-13 ATS against AFC foes. New England has a big edge on offense in this one, ranking #2 in the NFL with 428 ypg, while Baltimore has an edge on defense, at least on paper, but the Pats well remember that 33-14 debacle two years ago…
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