October 5th, 2011

FREE PICK: Troy at LA Lafayette

Author: Tony Finn, Who2BetOn Editor
0 comments | rating 1.0/5 (1 votes cast)

Special to Who2beton – The Prez!

Troy’s stats look ugly at first glance, however, digging deeper into whom they have played and points allowed compared to yards by opponent including some skewed drive charts offers us substantial value in this Saturday College Football contest. While Troy has allowed a large number of points, playing Clemson, Arkansas and MTSU is the primary culprit. While the Troy defense has allowed an average of 40-plus points per game this season they have done a good job of turning good competition over and LA Lafayette is 0-6 ATS in home games when they commit 2 turnovers-plus per game over the last 3 seasons.

Troy’s current player personnel and their non-conference schedule once again make them favorites in the Sun Belt. The Trojans have talented sophomore QB Corey Robinson (3,726 pass yds, 28 TD) under center and Chip Reeves (515 rec yds, 5 TD) has stepped up to replace WR Jerrel Jurniga.

Lafayette was a dismal 3-9 a year ago and while they are on a four game winning streak they have founds ways to sneak by a bad Kent State team, no-name Nicholls St and they should have lost their last two games against Florida Int and Florida Atlantic. They don’t match up well against an aggressive Troy offense and the final score won’t be close on Saturday

It has been a cash cow on the College gridiron to play against home underdogs with a winning percentage of .80% or better that are coming off 2 straight wins against conference opponents when the oddmsakers place them as a 3.5 to 10 point puppy. The trend is a stellar 30-5 (86%) over the last 5 seasons and is 1-0 this year.

Take Troy -6 and enjoy the free money!

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FREE PICK: Troy at LA Lafayette1.0101

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