Bit of a down field this week on the PGA Tour as it stops outside of Tampa, Fla., for the Transitions Championship. Many top players have taken this week off after the entire Top 50 played last week and most will again next week at Arnie’s tournament at Bay Hill.
The field includes only 6 of the top 25 in the latest Official World Golf Rankings, with two from the Top 10: Martin Kaymer and Paul Casey. The other four top-25 players in the field are Jim Furyk, Nick Watney, Bubba Watson and Retief Goosen.
The field includes 13 of the Top 25 on this year’s PGA Tour money list. Those players include Mark Wilson, Nick Watney, Bubba Watson, Rory Sabbatini, Jonathan Byrd, Jonathan Byrd, Vijay Singh, Bill Haas, Spencer Levin, Gary Woodland, Jimmy Walker, Kevin Na, Jason Dufner and Michael Bradley. It also includes all eight past champions: Jim Furyk (2010), Sean O’Hair (2008), Mark Calcavecchia (2007), K.J. Choi (2006 & ‘02), Carl Pettersson (2005), Vijay Singh (2004), Retief Goosen (2009 & 2003) and John Huston (2000).
While Kaymer is the +750 favorite, he has never played this event. Hard to win on your first trip to a course. Goosen might be the best value at +1800. The South African has those two wins at Cooperhead and a fifth-place finish a year ago. He was shaky at Doral last week, but broke 70 twice en route to a T31.
Another great value is Jonathan Byrd at +3000. He’s had some nice weekends at Copperhead, going T8 last year and ’07 and T12 in ’09. He also had a strong finish at Doral (68s on Saturday and Sunday).
Justin Rose is always in contention at this tournament, going T13 a year ago and T14 in ’08 (he didn’t play here in ’09). Right now he’s eighth on the Tour in bogey avoidance (11.94%) and his steady play should serve him well this weekend.
Bubba Watson (+3000) had to miss the Cadillac Championship because of the flu so he comes in following his fourth-place finish at the Match Play Championships. He already owns a win on Tour this year at the Farmers and, after missing the cut here in 2008 and 2009, he finished third last year as a second round 65 kept him in the hunt. His distance off the tee is a big advantage at Copperhead.
Jim Furyk won here last year despite nearly shanking a ball off NBC on-course reporter Roger Maltbie during the final hole. He would make an ugly bogey to hold off K.J. Choi by a shot. However, he hasn’t won since the Tour Championship last year. He has a missed cut and a T-52 in his only other two appearances at this tournament and he has been uncharacteristically bad in 2011. He’s missed the cut in two of three full-field events and is only 74th in the FedEx Cup standings.
Nick Watney is the second favorite at +800. The five previous times he’s played at Innisbrook, he’s improved every year. T-58, T-48, T-23, T-12 and solo fourth in 2010.
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