Bangladesh defeat makes it all or nothing now for England

The betting double of the weekend, of course, was Italy to beat France in the Six Nations rugby, and Bangladesh to beat a weary England in the cricket World Cup.

Of the two results, the latter was probably the more predictable: the Bangladeshis had beaten England for the first time in a ODI on last summer’s tour. On their home turf, and with their World Cup survival depending on it, they duly delivered.

England have now been involved in one of the most surprising comeback wins (against South Africa), a rare World Cup tie (against co-hosts) and two of the upsets of the tournament, Bangladesh and Ireland.

Which is all a reflection of how good that might be, but how tired the squad has become, their seemingly never-ending tour seeing them have just three days at home since last October.

Now, though, England may be going home sooner than they might have expected, because only a win over West Indies on Thursday will see them have a chance of scraping out of “the Group of Death” and make it to the quarterfinals.

New Zealand, Pakistan, Australia and Sri Lanka, after they have all played five games of their six in Group A, are all through to the quarters already.

Group B is altogether more uncertain, with even Tuesday’s match between South Africa and 8/1 outsiders Ireland having a possible influence.

For England, the equation is a simple one now. Bangladesh’s six-wicket victory over the Netherlands on Monday means that if England lose to West Indies they will be out of the World Cup. There are no permutations, calculations or complications that can save them, but there are a few that can knock them out, even if they do win.

They will be forced to wait and see what happens in the group’s final two matches at the weekend, Bangladesh v South Africa and West Indies v India, before they know whether they are going to make it to the quarter-finals.

And in the midst of all that, two of the England players who have a better World Cup, skipper Andrew Strauss and spinner Graeme Swann, have had a dose of “Delhi Belly” forcing them to miss practice on Tuesday.

Before taking to his sickbed (or hotel toilet), Swann accepted England’s situation with some alacrity.

“There’s no point in looking back on the games we’ve lost or tied,” he said. “It all comes down to Thursday now,” he said. “It does give things a certain amount of clarity. If we win four games we win the World Cup, which is very simple.”

England’s last game at the Chidambaram Stadium was the unlikely victory over South Africa, played on a pitch that provided so much turn that England were persuaded to open the bowling with a spinner for only the second time since they started playing one-day cricket in 1971.

Swann, Mike Yardy and Kevin Pietersen bowled 27 of the 47 overs South Africa faced in that match, but Yardy has since been dropped and Pietersen has flown home injured.

That leaves England with some tricky decisions to make, as well as heaping a whole lot of pressure on Swann. 

“If the wicket is like that again we’d be crazy not to play two spinners,” he said.

Crazy or perhaps just desperate – England seem to have lost faith in Yardy, and have never had much in James Tredwell.

At the same time, they have to be wary about over-thinking things, something Swann says they cannot be accused of doing at this World Cup.

Because the top and bottom of it is that the West Indies are not as good a team as India or South Africa. It is a game England ought to win, although as Swann acknowledged, in Chris Gayle and Kieron Pollard, the Windies have two players who “could have the day of their lives and post 300 regardless of the pitch”.

So, of the upcoming games through to the weekend:

Wednesday: Canada will be no match for 1/40 Australia at Bangalore, as the defending champions extend their unbeaten World Cup record.

Thursday: 8/11 England to beat West Indies (11/8).

Friday: Ireland at 5/11 should win the battle of the minnows with the Netherlands.

The day’s other match, effectively a “dead rubber” between New Zealand and Sri Lanka ought to go with the co-hosts (at 8/15).

Saturday: Have a hunch that, at Mirpur, Bangladesh could make a match of it with 2/17 South Africa. Back the co-hosts at 17/4.

Australia (6/11) meet Pakistan in Colombo. If 13/10 Pakistan can sort out their dodgy ‘keeper, they could end the Aussies’ World Cup winning streak.

Sunday: Kenya v Zimbabwe? Who cares? Back Zimbabwe for the African honors, at 1/5.

And India (3/10) v West Indies (11/5) in Chennai? India, with Sachin Tendulkar in majestic form, should have the better of this game, and with them available at 7/2 to win the tournament, that’s as good a price as you are going to get.

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