Outsiders Italy could land first big upset of Six Nations

Back France to retain the Six Nations rugby title this year, despite British bookies making England the 15/8 favorites to lift the title.

France won their ninth Grand Slam in 2010 and over the next six weeks Les Bleus will be gunning for the 10th as the perfect way to set themselves up in a World Cup year.

Despite the French winning all their five matches last year – against England, Wales, Scotland, Ireland and Italy – they can be backed at 13/5 to retain the title (which is subtly different from winning the Grand Slam; we’ll explain how later).

Ireland are rated 10/3 third favorites.

The tournament begins on Friday night in Cardiff, when Wales host and England, which will be captained for the first time by Mike Tindall. England’s favoritism before a ball is kicked has got to be based on their generally good form in the Autumn Internationals last fall, when they beat Australia but lost to both New Zealand and South Africa.

Since then, English coach Martin Johnson has seen his squad badly hit by injury and suspension, including the absence of two-thirds of his back row, not least Lewis Moody.

England go into the Wales game with a settled half-back pairing of Ben Youngs and Toby Flood, and with their flying backs all in place.

Wales coach Warren Gatland, in contrast, almost had to put his team sheet together with sticky plaster. The Principality’s thin resources look threadbare, with too many injuries to too many key players to give the hosts much of a chance of winning this famous old fixture.

England are 8/13 to win Friday night’s game, and a 3/1 punt on England winning the “Triple Crown” – beating Wales, Scotland and Ireland – also looks a good bet.

But where the Six Nations title will be decided will be Feb 26, when France must play England at Twickenham Stadium in London.

The “Grand Slam” is when a team wins all its fixtures in the championship. It is possible to win the Six Nations title even after suffering a defeat: France are 33/5 to land a back-to-back Grand Slam, although the odds on there being no Grand Slam in 2011 – 8/11 – are too tight to back but too shrewd to oppose.

The obvious bet would be to run an accumulator on England, France and Ireland to win their games this weekend. Obvious, but also not very daring and not great value.

France are 1/7 to beat Scotland in Paris on Saturday, while Ireland are 3/19 to beat Italy in Rome that afternoon.

Scotland under coach Andy Robinson have become a tight and formidable unit, though still not good enough to beat France on home turf.

Ireland, meanwhile, is a side that has grown old together. In the fall, they looked to be fraying around the edges, and it just might be that, behind their big pack, the Italians at home are inspired enough to land one of their regular upsets. If you fancy a bit of adventure, back Italy to win at 6/1.

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