NASCAR’s real season begins on Sunday at Phoenix International Raceway with the Subway Fresh Fit 500.
Oh, don’t be mistaken, the season began last week with the Daytona 500. But ask any driver and he will tell you that the “real” season begins after Daytona because the restrictor plates come off the cars.
Daytona winner Trevor Bayne, who has become a star after winning the Super Bowl of the sport in just his second Cup race and at age 20, will be in this race. Bayne decided not to, however, compete full-time in the Sprint Cup Series, instead focusing on chasing the championship in the Nationwide Series, and he ran in that event on Saturday in Phoenix. NASCAR instituted a new set of rules this year that drivers can only compete for a points title in one series, and Bayne, for now, chose the Nationwide because he has a full-time gig there. He’s only scheduled to race 18 Sprint Cup races on loan to the Wood Brothers team unless a sponsor steps in. There’s virtually no chance Bayne (+20000) wins again this week, although it would be quite a boost for NASCAR. He wrecked during Cup practice as well and will start with a backup car.
Carl Edwards (+600) is the best value on the board this week. PIR is one of Edwards’ favorite tracks. He won the last race held at PIR in November and he’s finished in the top 10 in five of his last six starts.
If not Edwards on Sunday it will likely be Jimmie Johnson (+600). The five-time points champ wasn’t a factor at Daytona last week. But he used to own Phoenix. Between the fall of 2007 and the fall of 2009, Johnson won four of the five Cup races at PIR. Since then, Johnson has a third-place finish and a fifth at the one-mile flat track. This weekend Johnson, who is 25th in the standings after wrecking at Daytona, will be driving chassis No. 590, which he last piloted to a fifth-place finish at Richmond last year. He has completed every lap at Phoenix (4,750 of 4,750) in his 15 Cup starts there, which is actually pretty remarkable at any track. No driver has more wins or Top-10 finishes at Phoenix.
What about Tony Stewart (+1200)? He looked poised to win last week as he lined up second on what turned out to be the final restart. Instead, he faded to 13th over the last two laps. He has one win and nine Top-10 finishes in his career at Phoenix, which is considered an intermediate track. Stewart has 20 career wins at such tracks.
Could Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+3000) end his 94-race winless streak? In 17 career starts at Phoenix, Earnhardt has two wins, but his last victory was seven years ago.
Twice in the past three spring races at Phoenix the leader with 10 laps to go has not won, both times involving Ryan Newman. In 2009, Newman was leading, Mark Martin won; last year, both Jeff Gordon and Kyle Busch led within the final 10 laps, Newman won. He led only four laps, fewest of any winner in track history (three drivers led more than 100 laps in that race: Busch and Johnson with 113 each and Juan Montoya with 104.
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