There’s a Derby Day feel to this weekend’s fixtures in the English Premier League, with London sides Arsenal and West Ham clashing on Saturday, Birmingham travelling across the Second City to Aston Villa on Sunday lunchtime, and Newcastle hosting neighbors Sunderland later in the afternoon.
As one Geordie colleague said to me this week, “El Classico? The Old Firm? Boca against River Plate? There’s only two games a season that matter up here, bonny lad.”
So important is the fixture, and Premier League survival, to Newcastle that they squandered the chance of a run in the League Cup in midweek, fielding a desperately weakened team against Arsenal that promptly went down 4-0 at home, reviving rumors about how long coach Chris Hughton might have in the job.
Thing is, if Hughton can deliver three points against Newcastle’s Wearside rivals this weekend, he’s probably safe in his job for at least… well, until the next time a result goes against him.
Both teams are respectably mid-table, but as England puts the clocks back this weekend for daylight saving time, soccer experts reckon that the real hard graft of the season is just beginning.
Sunderland has won just one of the sides last 11 EPL clashes. But Hughton’s men seem to crack under the pressure of expectation of their passionate home crowd, and they have already slumped to home defeats by Blackpool and Stoke.
Sunderland is on a seven-game unbeaten run in the league and hasn’t conceded a goal in their last three. Sunderland can be backed at 11-1 to nab a 1-0 win, but I fancy this may end with local honor even in a draw.
Arsenal v West Ham: Arsenal is in slick form at present – they’ve scored 12 goals in their last three games, conceding only once – and they have injured stars like Theo Walcott and Nicklas Bendtner getting back to fitness. Could be a case of poor old ‘Ammers.
Rock bottom West Ham have notched just seven in nine league matches. You can get 7-1 on a 3-0 Arsenal win, and you might want to scout around for the odds of West Ham manager Avram Grant being the next EPL coach to be fired.
Bolton v Liverpool: Liverpool’s second win of the season last weekend may only be a glimmer of light at the end of a very long tunnel for them. Not least because this weekend they travel down the East Lancs Road to visit a very tough Bolton side.
Owen Coyle’s team have steered through the last five league games without defeat and are also unbeaten in their last six at the Reebok Stadium. A 1-1 draw is offered at 13-2 for this match, but I prefer to back a Bolton win.
Blackburn v Chelsea: Chelsea striker Nicolas Anelka’s personal haul of 10 career goals against Blackburn is the most scored by a player against the hosts in the EPL.
Blackburn boss Sam Allardyce hasn’t fared much better when trying to beat the Blues. In 16 matches his teams have never kept a clean sheet and he’s had no wins from the last 11 encounters.
Expect a physical approach from Blackburn, but once Chelsea’s power and pace has broken through, they could run up a cricket score: back Chelsea to win, perhaps by 3-0.
Everton v Stoke: David Moyes’s men are on a four-match unbeaten run, Stoke have lost their last three. Nine of Stoke’s 10 goals have arrived in the second half of matches this season, while Everton are yet to concede a goal in the final 15 minutes of a game. The margins are tight.
Back Everton at 17-2 to get a 2-1 win.
Fulham v Wigan: Fulham began their league campaign impressively with a run of seven games unbeaten, but have now gone six matches in all competitions without a win. Wigan began their term disastrously with two thumping defeats — 10 goals conceded, none scored — but since then they’ve lost just one of their last 10 games played.
Back Fulham to sneak a home win by the odd goal in three.
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Manchester City: Wolves haven’t won a league game since the opening day of the season. Their latest trips to Chelsea and Manchester United perhaps gave some clue why, as they created a shedload of chances but still lost both the league game and the cup tie.
City are smarting after being walloped 3-0 at home by Arsenal last weekend. They’ll be going for the early goal — Man City have won all five league games in which they’ve scored first this season.
City can be backed at 8-1 to get their title chase back on track by winning 2-1. Yet despite having a $400 million all-star line-up, without Carlos Tevez and away from home, I expect them to struggle. Back the draw.
Manchester United v Tottenham: This promises to be the stand-out game of the weekend.
Tottenham’s real claims to a top-four slot by May will be determined over the next six weeks. After having avoided United, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City so far this season, this weekend sees the start of a run of fixtures in which Harry Redknapp’s team must face them all.
To describe Tottenham’s record at the “Big Four” grounds in the Premier League as “poor” would be to flatter it. In the 18 completed EPL seasons, Spurs have never won a single league game at Old Trafford or at Chelsea’s Stamford Bridge.
The last time Spurs triumphed at Old Trafford in the league was December 1989. United remain unbeaten in all 15 competitive matches played so far this season. I can’t see either of those sequences ending on Saturday, so it may just be that the sides end up sharing the points: you can get 8-1 on a 1-1 draw.
Aston Villa v Birmingham City: Villa has won the last six matches against Birmingham, including 1-0 wins home and away last season. Birmingham must hope for an improvement in their away form, having failed to win any of their last nine on the road.
So although you can get 6-1 if you back the 1-1 draw, I lean towards backing a Villa win.
William Hill is also offering a three-game special, 20-1 if Villa, Sunderland and Bolton all win this weekend. Well worth having a touch.
Blackpool v West Bromwich Albion: West Brom are the surprise package so far this season, off the back of a win at Arsenal and coming back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 at Manchester United.
Blackpool fans are still waiting for their first ever home win in the Premier League (three matches, two defeats and a draw so far).
This is a Monday night game: at 13-1, backing West Brom to win 2-0 could be worth waiting for.
This week’s EPL Yankee:
Chelsea to beat Blackburn.
Arsenal to beat West Ham.
Bolton to beat Liverpool.
Wolves to draw with Man City.
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